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For this assignment, you will evaluate each scenario below.  You will use information throughout the course to help you provide a basic analysis of the limited information. 

Follow these instructions for each scenario:

From chapter 4: Assign a level of confidence (High, Moderate, Low).  If you were the intelligence official evaluating the information, how certain would you be of the credibility?  Explain why you would assign each scenario with a particular level of confidence.  Remember the recurring phrase heard in today’s IC: “All source is best” (pg. 101 in your text).

From chapter 4: What “INT” was used to collect this intelligence?  Is there another “INT” that could be used to gather more information that may be turned into useable intelligence?

From chapter 5: Are there barriers to analysis related to each scenario?  Any potential bias or potential for misperception?  If there are no easily identifiable barriers, explain your position.

From chapter 10: Are there any constitutional issues that need to be considered? Explain.  If not, explain why. 

From chapter 14: What type of threats are being considered, or should be considered? 
Guidelines to follow:

From chapter 6: Apply critical thinking skills to your assessment of each scenario.  Think out of the box and beyond the obvious.  Demonstrate your skills to do so by providing a well thought out analysis, avoiding unstated or unexplored assumptions, and considering any driving issues that may be in play.

From chapter 11: Write clearly and concisely. 

Scenario #1:
I received information that Saddam Hussein is hiding WMD in Iraq. I was told this by an informant that I havent known for very long. An intelligence agent working for one of our allies said this informant cannot be trusted. There isnt much else to go on, but my boss really needs this information to make a decision.

Scenario #2:
I have proof that a suicide bomber will board an airplane at 6:00 am on Wednesday morning. A very reliable source that I have trusted for years is in the inner circle of the bombers organization. He has taken a picture of a note being delivered by a courier that gives the go-ahead to complete this attack. He has also given me detailed plans of this attack and the individuals involved. I received confirmation that NSA has intercepted communications between the involved parties. The communications consist of discussions about the attack between two men from the same organization.

Scenario #3:
I have researched emerging violence occurring on the Mexican-American border. It appears that the violence is getting dangerously close to U.S. border patrol agents. One of the agents received a report from several civilians that the drug cartels are considering launching an attack intended to kill agents and civilians at one of the border crossings. I sent a new source to verify the rumor. My source says it has been discussed by the Los Zetas but cannot confirm a definite time of the attack.

Provide your analysis of all three scenarios using this template:

M07 Writing Assignment Template

There is no required word count for this assignment.  You will provide a thorough, well thought out analysis for each scenario.

Include at least one APA formatted reference on your reference page.  You will see the reference page on the template.

Any topic (writer’s choice)
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