February 16th, 2021 
Pick two sorts of events that will happen between Feb. 16 and April 20
1.An event you have no discretion over (e.g. the election, the economy, the standings of a sports team)
2.An event you have some discretion over (e.g. getting a job offer, results on an important assignment, change in your relationship status, level of your fitness
Can be anything in each category but must be:
1.Observable (i.e. what would an observer see if this event happened)
2.Timely (i.e. exactly when will this event take place)
Assignment:
1.Describe event and time
2.Make a prediction of what will happen by that time (or at that time)
3.Describe what knowledge you have used to inform your prediction
4.Describe your level of confidence in your prediction
Do 1-4 for each of the two events
2 pages
Essay 1 leads to Essay 3
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